Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
